Waiting for the Election in Venezuela

I am in Venezuela as the presidential election approaches, and the excitment and division is palpable. We attended the huge pro-Chavez rally on Sunday, with well over a million supporters filling the streets in chaotic sea of people almost all wearing red, dancing, chanting and marching. We were able to find a position on a bridge where we could see the crowd, and it went as far as the eye could see up a wide boulevard packed with people, who spilled over into every nearby area.

One of the women on the bridge said to me, tell the Americans how many there are here. Tell them there are five boulevards like this one filled with people!

Estimates range from 1 to 3 million people in attendance.

Chavez has framed this campaign in part as a battle between him and Bush. The US administration is funneling money to the opposition, and has been for years. But Chavez is also speaking alot of love -- how the work for the Venezuelan future is based on love of the people. And he is highlighting the governments real progress in establishing a literacy program, free health care for any who need it, projects that provide food and housing for the poor, and a cooperatives' program that is encouraging people all over the country to come together to create businesses, to build health clinics, to claim title to the land their homes are built on in the poor, hillside barrios of Caracas.

The day before the Chavez rally, we went to the aftermath of the opposition rally. It was in a wealthy section of town, a lovely public square. Our Venezuelan trip leader began giving us an introduction to the history of the square, where the coup against Chavez was launched, and we were soon joined by a small group of anti-Chavez folks who wanted to tell us what is wrong with the Chavez government. Much sounded like a version of reality that comes from watching the Venezuelan version of Fox TV. Chavez is causing the poverty (actually, he inherited a poverty rate had increased to 70 percent by the time he took office) . The opposition will help the poor and the homeless (although their support is firmly upper and middle class). The government is giving away the country's oil to foreigners. The doctors Cuba is sending are not real doctors; people die because of their incompetence. The US is not backing the opposition; it is a purely Venezuelan effort, etc. It is a version of reality that does not jive with what I am hearing from other sources.

We came to the square to get an earful, we listened politely and for a long time. Then we thanked them and left.

The opposition, many of whom tried unsuccessfully to unseat the president in a coup in 2002 (the president was kidnapped, his "resignation" was announced both in Caracas and Washington, DC, and then, in the wake of a popular uprising, he was released and returned to power. Interestingly, for those concerned about protecting democracy in Venezuela, the first thing the new self-declared president when he assumed office during the coup was to throw out the constitution that had been approved by a voter referendum, and dismiss the Assembly and the Supreme Court. Because of loyal supporters among the military and massive street demonstrations, Chavez was released and was able to return to office and reinstat all the institutions of the democracy, and all have stood, despite a very hostile press, owned by his opponents. The opposition also tried to legally unseat Chavez through a referendum, but were overwhelmingly defeated by the popular vote.

Now the opposition is working again through the electoral process, while also calling on supporters to take to the streets if they lose the election, claiming, without any evidence I can find, that the election will be rigged. There are hundreds of international observers in the country. The voting machines all have paper ballots, so the voter can assure their vote is correct and the ballots are kept for future auditing. Public opinion polls, with only a very few exceptions, indicate a massive win for Chavez. But all are watching to see what will happen and whether the city will be shut down by the opposition if (when) Chavez wins.

The part most troubling to me as a citizen of the US is the financial support the US government, and thus taxpayers such as myself, have provided to those who were involved in the coup (see Eva Golinger's documentation, developed through the Freedom of Information Act). In her book, the Chavez Code, and her new book, Bush vs. Chavez Washington's War Against Venezuela, Golinger documents the continued and even increased funding for the opposition, coming through the US-backed National Endowment for Democracy and channeled through various front groups and Venezuela based organizations.

Nonetheless, there are good reason to believe the election will be at least as fair as they get these days.

After what Chavez supporters went through to turn back the 2002 coup and to win the recall referendum, they are unlikely to sit quietly by if the opposition should try to win power through force. The election takes place Sunday. Election activities are to cease as of today, and beginning tomorrow, no liquor will be available for sale.