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<h1>World Governments: If You Won't Take the Lead on Climate Change, Then the People Will</h1>

<div><div><div><p><span>This article originally appeared at <a href="http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/175773/tomgram%3A_michael_klare%2C_a_climate_change-fueled_revolution/">TomDispatch.com</a>.</span></p>  <p></p>  <p>A week after the most powerful "super typhoon" ever recorded pummeled the Philippines, killing    <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-24954011">thousands</a> in a single province, and three weeks after the northern Chinese city of Harbin     suffered a devastating "<a href="%22http:/">airpocalypse</a>," suffocating the city with coal-plant pollution, government leaders beware!</p>  <blockquote>Any "green revolution" will seek policy shifts of such magnitude as to challenge the survival  of incumbent governments.</blockquote>  <p>Although individual events like these cannot be attributed with absolute certainty to increased fossil fuel use and climate change, they are the type of     disasters that, scientists tell us, will become a pervasive part of life on a planet being transformed by the massive consumption of carbon-based fuels. If, as is now the case, governments across the planet back an    <a href="http://www.tomdispatch.com/blog/175734/michael_klare_entering_the_third_carbon_age%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">extension of the carbon age</a> and     ever-increasing reliance on "unconventional" fossil fuels like tar sands and shale gas, we should all expect trouble.</p>  <p>In fact, we should expect mass upheavals leading to a green energy revolution.</p>  <p>None of us can predict the future, but when it comes to a mass rebellion against the perpetrators of global destruction, we can see a glimmer of the coming     upheaval in events of the present moment. Take a look and you will see that the environmental protests that have long bedeviled politicians are gaining in strength and support. With awareness of climate change growing, and intensifying    <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-205_162-57609494/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">floods</a>, <a href="http://thinkpro">fires</a>,     <a href="http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-me-parched-20130806-dto,0,5922502.htmlstory%22%20%5Cl%20%22axzz2kOIplREj%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank"> droughts </a> , and <a href="%22htt">storms</a> becoming an inescapable feature of daily life across the planet, more people are joining environmental groups and     engaging in increasingly bold protest actions.</p>  <p>Sooner or later, government leaders are likely to face multiple eruptions of mass public anger and may, in the end, be forced to make radical adjustments     in energy policy or risk being swept aside.</p>  <p>In fact, it is possible to imagine such a green energy revolution erupting in one part of the world and spreading like wildfire to others. Because climate     change is going to inflict increasingly severe harm on human populations, the impulse to rebel is only likely to gain in strength across the planet. While     circumstances may vary, the ultimate goal of these uprisings will be to terminate the reign of fossil fuels while emphasizing investment in and reliance     upon renewable forms of energy. And a success in any one location is bound to invite imitation in others.</p>  <p>A wave of serial eruptions of this sort would not be without precedent. In the early years of the twentieth-first century, for example, one government after another in disparate parts of the former Soviet Union was swept away in what were called the "<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colour_revolution%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">color revolutions</a>"&mdash;populist upheavals against old-style authoritarian     regimes. These included the "Rose Revolution" in Georgia (2003), the "Orange Revolution" in Ukraine (2004), and the "Pink" or "Tulip Revolution" in     Kyrgyzstan (2005). In 2011, a similar wave of protests erupted in North Africa, culminating in what we call the Arab Spring.</p>  <blockquote>Public skepticism has  proved a major obstacle to the Japanese government's desire to    restart the country's idled reactors.</blockquote>  <p>A "green revolution" is <a href="http://www.tomdispatch.com/blog/175737/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">unlikely</a> to arise from a highly structured political     campaign with clearly identified leaders. In all likelihood, it will erupt spontaneously, after a cascade of climate-change induced disasters provokes an     outpouring of public fury. Once ignited, however, it will undoubtedly ratchet up the pressure for governments to seek broad-ranging, systemic     transformations of their energy and climate policies. In this sense, any such upheaval&mdash;whatever form it takes&mdash;will prove "revolutionary" by seeking policy     shifts of such magnitude as to challenge the survival of incumbent governments or force them to enact measures with transformative implications.</p>  <p>Foreshadowings of such a process can already be found around the globe. Take the mass environmental protests that erupted in Turkey this June. Though     sparked by a far smaller concern than planetary devastation via climate change, for a time they actually posed a significant threat to Prime Minister Recep     Tayyip Erdogan and his governing party. Although his forces eventually succeeded in crushing the protests&mdash;     <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/04/world/europe/development-project-in-istanbul-focus-of-violent-protests-is-stopped-by-court.html%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank"> leaving </a> four dead, 8,000 injured, and 11 blinded by tear gas canisters&mdash;his reputation as a moderate Islamist was    <a href="http://bigstory.ap.org/article/eu-defends-right-peaceful-protest-turkey%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">badly damaged</a> by the episode.</p>  <p>Like so many surprising upheavals, the Turkish uprising had the most modest of beginnings: on May 27, a handful of environmental activists    <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/05/world/europe/istanbul-protests-started-over-trees.html%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">blocked</a> bulldozers sent by the     government to level Gezi Park, a tiny oasis of greenery in the heart of Istanbul, and prepare the way for the construction of an upscale mall. The     government responded to this small-scale nonviolent action by sending in riot police and clearing the area, a move that enraged many Turks and prompted     tens of thousands to occupy nearby Taksim Square. This move, in turn, led to an even more brutal     <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-16/turkish-police-block-off-taksim-after-street-battles-overnight.html%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank"> police crackdown </a> and then to huge demonstrations in Istanbul and around the country. In the end, mass protests    <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_protests_in_Turkey%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">erupted</a> in 70 cities, the largest display of antigovernment     sentiment since Erdogan's Justice and Development Party came to power in 2002.</p>  <p>This was, in the most literal sense possible, a "green" revolution, ignited by the government's assault on the last piece of greenery in central Istanbul. But once the police intervened in full strength, it became a wide-ranging rebuke to Erdogan's <a href="http://bigstory.ap.org/article/eu-defends-right-peaceful-protest-turkey%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">authoritarian impulses</a> and his drive to    <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/08/worl">remake</a> the city as a neo-Ottoman showplace&mdash;replete with fancy malls and high-priced condominiums&mdash;while     eliminating poor neighborhoods and freewheeling public spaces like Taksim Square.</p>  <p>"It's all about superiority, and ruling over the people like sultans," one protestor    <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/01/world/europe/police-attack-protesters-in-istanbuls-taksim-square.html%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">declared</a>. It's not just about the trees in Gezi Park,    <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/01/world/europe/police-attack-protesters-in-istanbuls-taksim-square.html%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">said</a> another:     "We are here to stand up against those who are trying to make a profit from our land."</p>  <h3><b>The Ningbo rebellion</b></h3>  <p>The same trajectory of events&mdash;a small-scale environmental protest evolving into a full-scale challenge to governmental authority&mdash;can be seen in other mass     protests of recent years.</p>  <p>Take a Chinese example: in October 2012, students and middle class people joined with poor farmers to protest the construction of an $8.8 billion     petrochemical facility in Ningbo, a city of 3.4 million people south of Shanghai. In a country where environmental pollution has reached nearly unprecedented levels, these protests were    <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/29/world/asia/protests-against-sinopec-plant-in-china-reach-third-day.html%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">touched off</a> by fears that the plant, to be built by the state-owned energy company Sinopec with local government support, would produce    <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paraxylene%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">paraxylene</a>, a toxic substance used in plastics, paints, and cleaning solvents.</p>  <p>Here, too, the initial spark that led to the protests was small in scale. On October 22, some 200 farmers obstructed a road near the district government's     office in an attempt to block the plant's construction. After the police were called in to clear the blockade, students from nearby Ningbo University     joined the protests. Using social media, the protestors quickly enlisted support from middle-class residents of the city who converged in their thousands     on downtown Ningbo.</p>  <p>When riot police moved in to break up the crowds, the protestors <a href="http://www">fought back</a>, attacking police cars and throwing bricks and water     bottles. While the police eventually gained the upper hand after several days of pitched battles, the Chinese government concluded that mass action of this     sort, occurring in the heart of a major city and featuring an alliance of students, farmers, and young professionals, was too great a threat. After five days of fighting, the government gave in,    <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/oct/28/chinese-factory-plan-ditched-protests%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">announcing</a> the cancellation of the     petrochemical project.</p>  <p>The Ningbo demonstrations were <a href="http://www.nytimes.co">hardly the first</a> such upheavals to erupt in China. They did, however, highlight a     growing governmental vulnerability to mass environmental protest. For decades, the reigning Chinese Communist Party has justified its monopolistic hold on     power by citing its success in generating rapid economic growth. But that growth means the use of ever more fossil fuels and petrochemicals, which, in turn, means increased carbon emissions and disastrous atmospheric pollution, including one "    <a href="http://www.npr.org/2013/01/14/169305324/beijings-air-quality-reaches-hazardous-levels%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">airpocalypse</a>" after another.</p>  <p>Until recently, most Chinese seemed to accept such conditions as the inevitable consequences of growth, but it seems that tolerance of environmental degradation is rapidly    <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/07/world/asia/beijing-journal-anger-grows-over-air-pollution-in-china.html%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">diminishing</a>.     As a result, the party finds itself in a terrible bind: it can slow development as a step toward cleaning up the environment, incurring a risk of growing     economic discontent, or it can continue its policy of growth at any cost, and find itself embroiled in a firestorm of Ningbo-style environmental protests.</p>  <p>This dilemma&mdash;the environment versus the economy&mdash;has been at the heart of similar mass eruptions elsewhere on the planet.</p>  <h3><b>After Fukushima</b></h3>  <p>Two of the largest protests of this sort were sparked by the reactor meltdowns at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plants on March 11, 2011, after a     massive tsunami struck northern Japan. In both of these actions&mdash;the first in Germany, the second in Japan&mdash;the future of nuclear power and the survival of     governments were placed in doubt.</p>  <blockquote>Many governments will be at risk, but the Chinese leadership appears to be especially vulnerable.</blockquote>  <p>The biggest protests occurred in Germany. On March 26, 15 days after the Fukushima explosions, an estimated    <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-12872339%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">250,000</a> people participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations across the     country&mdash;100,000 in Berlin, and up to 40,000 each in Hamburg, Munich, and Cologne. "Today's demonstrations are just the prelude to a new, strong,     anti-nuclear movement," <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-12872339">declared</a> Jochen Stay, a protest leader. "We're not going to let up     until the plants are finally mothballed."</p>  <p>At issue was the fate of Germany's remaining nuclear power plants. Although touted as an attractive alternative to fossil fuels, nuclear power is seen by most Germans as a dangerous and unwelcome energy option. Several months prior to Fukushima, Chancellor Angela Merkel    <a href="http://www.dw.de/merkel-hails-contentious-new-power-policy-as-greenest-in-the-world/a-5978792-1">insisted</a> that Germany would keep its 17     operating reactors until 2040, allowing a smooth transition from the country's historic reliance on coal to renewable energy for generating electricity.     Immediately after Fukushima, she ordered a temporary shutdown of Germany's seven oldest reactors for safety inspections but refused to close the others,     provoking an outpouring of protest.</p>  <p>Witnessing the scale of the demonstrations, and after suffering an electoral defeat in the key state of Baden-W&uuml;rttemberg, Merkel evidently came to the conclusion that clinging to her position would be the equivalent of political suicide. On May 30, she    <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13592208%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">announced</a> that the seven reactors undergoing inspections would be     closed permanently and the remaining 10 would be phased out by 2022, almost 20 years earlier than in her original plan.</p>  <p>By all accounts, the decision to phase out nuclear power almost two decades early will have significant repercussions for the German economy.    <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/nuclear-power-germany-renewable-energy%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">Shutting down</a> the reactors and replacing them with wind and solar energy will cost an estimated $735 billion and take several decades,    <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/19/world/europe/germanys-effort-at-clean-energy-proves-complex.html%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">causing</a> high     electricity bills and periodic energy shortages. However, such is the strength of <a href="%22ht">antinuclear sentiment</a> in Germany that Merkel felt she     had no choice but to close the reactors anyway.</p>  <p>The antinuclear protests in Japan occurred considerably later, but were no less momentous. On July 16 of 2012, 16 months after the Fukushima disaster, an estimated    <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/17/world/asia/thousands-gather-in-tokyo-to-protest-nuclear-restart.html%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">170,000 people</a> assembled in Tokyo to protest a government plan to restart the country's nuclear reactors, idled after the disaster. This was not only Japan's largest     antinuclear demonstration in many years, but the largest of any sort to occur in recent memory.</p>  <p>For the government, the July 16 action was particularly significant. Prior to Fukushima, most Japanese had embraced the country's growing reliance on nuclear power, putting their trust in the government to ensure its safety. After Fukushima and the disastrous attempts of the reactors' owner, the    <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokyo_Electric_Power_Company%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">Tokyo Electric Power Company</a> (TEPCO), to deal with the     situation, public support for nuclear power <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/17/world/asia/japan">plummeted</a>. As it became increasingly evident     that the government had <a href="http://ajw.asahi.com/article/0311disaster/fukushima/AJ201301050037%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">mishandled</a> the crisis,     people lost faith in its ability to exercise effective control over the nuclear industry. Repeated promises that nuclear reactors could be made safe lost     all credibility when it became known that government officials had <a href="http://www.nytime">collaborated</a> with TEPCO executives in     <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/13/world/asia/tepco-admits-failure-in-acknowledging-risks-at-nuclear-plant.html%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank"> covering up </a> safety concerns at Fukushima and, once the meltdowns occurred, in <a href="http://nuclear-news.net/201">concealing</a> information about the true scale of     the disaster and its medical implications.</p>  <p>The July 16 protest and others like it should be seen as a public vote against the government's energy policy and oversight capabilities.</p>  <p>Skepticism about the government, rare in twenty-first-century Japan, has proved a major obstacle to that government's desire to    <a href="http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=JA">restart</a> the country's 50 idled reactors. While most Japanese oppose nuclear power, Prime     Minister Shinzo Abe remains determined to get the rectors running again in order to reduce Japan's heavy reliance on imported energy and promote economic     growth.</p>  <p>"I think it is impossible to promise zero [nuclear power plants] at this stage," he    <a href="http://ajw.asahi.com/article/behind_news/politics/AJ201310250045%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">declared</a> this October. "From the government's     standpoint, [nuclear plants] are extremely important for a stable energy supply and economic activities."</p>  <p>Despite such sentiments, Abe is finding it difficult to garner support for his plans, and it is doubtful that significant numbers of those reactors will be     coming online anytime soon.</p>  <h3><b>The explosions ahead</b></h3>  <p>What these episodes tell us is that people around the world are becoming ever more concerned about energy policy as it affects their lives and are prepared     to engage in mass protests, often on short notice. At the same time, governments globally, with rare exceptions, are deeply wedded to existing energy     policies. These almost invariably turn them into targets, no matter what the original spark for mass opposition. As the results of climate change become     ever more disruptive, government officials will find themselves repeatedly choosing between long-held energy plans and the possibility of losing their grip     on power.</p>  <blockquote>Like China, the United States will experience genuine damage from its unwavering commitment to fossil fuels.</blockquote>  <p>Because few governments are as yet prepared to launch the sorts of efforts that might even begin to effectively address the peril of climate change, they     will increasingly be seen as obstacles to essential action and so as entities that need to be removed. In short, climate rebellion&mdash;spontaneous protests     that may at any moment evolve into unquenchable mass movements&mdash;is on the horizon. Faced with such rebellions, recalcitrant governments will respond with     some combination of accommodation to popular demands and harsh repression.</p>  <p>Many governments will be at risk from such developments, but the Chinese leadership appears to be especially vulnerable. The ruling party has staked its     future viability on an endless carbon-fueled growth agenda that is steadily destroying the country's environment. It has already faced half a dozen environmental upheavals like the one in Ningbo, and has responded to them either by    <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/05/world/asia/chinese-officials-cancel-plant-project-amid-protests.html%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">agreeing</a> to     protestors' demands or by employing brute force. The question is: How long can this go on?</p>  <p>Environmental conditions are     <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/chinas-choice/2013/jun/07/chinas-environmental-problems-grim-ministry-report%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank"> bound to worsen </a> , especially as China continues to rely on coal for home heating and electrical power, and yet there is     <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/31/business/energy-environment/chinas-clean-air-drive-likely-to-take-a-long-time.html%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank"> no indication </a> that the ruling Communist Party is prepared to take the radical steps required to significantly reduce domestic coal consumption. This translates into the     possibility of mass protests erupting at any time and potentially on an unprecedented scale. And these, in turn, could bring the Party's very survival into     question&mdash;a <a href="http://asiafoundation.org/in-asia/2011/05/04/china-political-stability-amid-jasmine-revolutions/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">scenario</a> guaranteed to produce immense anxiety among the country's top leaders.</p>  <blockquote>If governments won't take the lead on an imperiled planet, someone else will.</blockquote>  <p>And what about the United States? At this point, it would be ludicrous to say that the nation's political leadership is at risk of being forced to take     serious steps to scale back reliance on fossil fuels as a result of popular disturbances. There are, however, certainly signs of a growing nationwide     campaign against aspects of fossil fuel reliance, including <a href="http://www.tomdispatch.com/blog/175618/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">vigorous protests</a> against hydraulic fracturing ("fracking") and the    <a href="http://www.tomdispatch.com/blog/175648/michael_klare_a_presidential_decision%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">Keystone XL tar sands pipeline</a>.</p>  <p>For environmental activist and writer Bill McKibben, all this adds up to an incipient mass movement against the continued consumption of fossil fuels.</p>  <p style="text-align: center; "><a href="/?p=13597"><figure><img src="/wp-content/uploads/imports/3bdad16529544b82a5677de1c630cd4f.jpg"><figcaption><span><p><span>Bill de Blasio accepts the Democratic nomination for mayor. Photo by <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/98479051@N00/9779030052/">Jere Keys / Flickr</a>.</span></p></span></figcaption></figure><br><b>Four Signs that Regular Folks Can Still Win (and One That Shows the Power of Money) </b></a></p>  <p>"In the last few years," he has <a href="http://www.tomdispatch.com/blog/175737/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank">written</a>, this movement "has blocked the     construction of dozens of coal-fired power plants, fought the oil industry to a draw on the Keystone pipeline, convinced a wide swath of American     institutions to divest themselves of their fossil fuel stocks, and challenged practices like mountaintop-removal coal mining and fracking for natural gas."     It may not have achieved the success of the drive for gay marriage, he observes, but it "continues to grow quickly, and it's starting to claim some     victories."</p>  <p>If it's still too early to gauge the future of this anticarbon movement, it does seem, at least, to be gaining momentum. In the 2013 elections, for     example, three cities in energy-rich Colorado&mdash;Boulder, Fort Collins, and Lafayette     <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/us/colorado-cities-rejection-of-fracking-poses-political-test-for-natural-gas-industry.html%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank"> voted </a> to ban or place moratoriums on fracking within their boundaries, while protests against Keystone XL and similar projects are on the rise.</p>  <p>Nobody can say that a green energy revolution is a sure thing, but who can deny that energy-oriented protests in the U.S. and elsewhere have the potential     to expand into something far greater? Like China, the United States will experience genuine damage from its unwavering commitment to fossil fuels in the years     ahead. Americans are not, for the most part, passive people. Expect them, like the Chinese, to respond to these perils with increased ire and a     determination to alter government policy.</p>  <p>So don't be surprised if that green energy revolution erupts in your neighborhood as part of humanity's response to the greatest danger we've ever faced.     If governments won't take the lead on an imperiled planet, someone else will.</p>  <hr style="width: 50%;" width="50%"><ul><li><b></b></li>  <b> </b>  <li><b></b></li>  <b> </b>  <li><b></b></li>  </ul></div><!-- <img src="f16ee01120964d96a6ead5dc6011d2a9"> --></div><!-- <p><img src="a5682b8f1e8a443282b01c0ecb10c2e3">Michael T. Klare wrote this article for <a href="http://www.tomdispatch.com/blog/175773/tomgram%3A_michael_klare%2C_a_climate_change-fueled_revolution">TomDispatch.com</a>, where it originally appeared. Michael is a professor of peace and conflict studies at Hampshire College and the author, most recently, of <i> The Race for What's Left</i>. A documentary movie version of his book <i>Blood and Oil</i> is available from  the Media Education Foundation.</p> --></div><!-- <p><b>Read more:</b></p>&#13;  --><!-- <a href="resolveuid/63d35514d650416280b09e830ecd2ecc">Adapting to Climate Change: It's Not About Giving Up, It's About Getting Real </a> --><!-- <a href="resolveuid/5d0b1fcdd3784061aab64c2565a078b6">Women's Knowledge: Three Reasons We Won't Solve Climate Change Without It </a> --><!-- <a href="resolveuid/857f9109bc734bed8b08fa693cc91d07">Why the Corporate Media's Climate Change Censorship Is Only Half the Story </a> -->

<p>This article originally appeared in <a href="https://www.yesmagazine.org">Yes! Magazine</a> at <a href="https://www.yesmagazine.org/environment/2013/11/20/world-governments-if-you-won-t-take-lead-on-climate-change-then-the-people-will">https://www.yesmagazine.org/environment/2013/11/20/world-governments-if-you-won-t-take-lead-on-climate-change-then-the-people-will</a>.</p><link href="https://www.yesmagazine.org/environment/2013/11/20/world-governments-if-you-won-t-take-lead-on-climate-change-then-the-people-will" rel="canonical"/><p>Yes! Magazine is a nonprofit, independent media organization dedicated to telling stories of ... . Learn more at <a href="https://www.yesmagazine.org">Yes! Magazine</a></p><img id="republication-tracker-tool-source" src="https://www.yesmagazine.org/?republication-pixel=true&post=10793&ga4=G-74QJNNY44Z" style="width:1px;height:1px;">

World Governments: If You Won't Take the Lead on Climate Change, Then the People Will

This article originally appeared at TomDispatch.com.    A week after the most powerful "super typhoon" ever recorded pummeled the Philippines, killing    thousands in a single province, and three weeks after the northern Chinese city of Harbin     suffered a devastating "airpocalypse," suffocating the city with coal-plant pollution, government leaders beware!  Any "green revolution" will seek policy shifts of such magnitude as to challenge the survival  of incumbent governments.  Although individual events like these cannot be attributed with absolute certainty to increased fossil fuel use and climate change, they are the type of     disasters that, scientists tell us, will become a pervasive part of life on a planet being transformed by the massive consumption of carbon-based fuels. If, as is now the case, governments across the planet back an    extension of the carbon age and     ever-increasing reliance on "unconventional" fossil fuels like tar sands and shale gas, we should all expect trouble.  In fact, we should expect mass upheavals leading to a green energy revolution.  None of us can predict the future, but when it comes to a mass rebellion against the perpetrators of global destruction, we can see a glimmer of the coming     upheaval in events of the present moment. Take a look and you will see that the environmental protests that have long bedeviled politicians are gaining in strength and support. With awareness of climate change growing, and intensifying    floods, fires,      droughts  , and storms becoming an inescapable feature of daily life across the planet, more people are joining environmental groups and     engaging in increasingly bold protest actions.  Sooner or later, government leaders are likely to face multiple eruptions of mass public anger and may, in the end, be forced to make radical adjustments     in energy policy or risk being swept aside.  In fact, it is possible to imagine such a green energy revolution erupting in one part of the world and spreading like wildfire to others. Because climate     change is going to inflict increasingly severe harm on human populations, the impulse to rebel is only likely to gain in strength across the planet. While     circumstances may vary, the ultimate goal of these uprisings will be to terminate the reign of fossil fuels while emphasizing investment in and reliance     upon renewable forms of energy. And a success in any one location is bound to invite imitation in others.  A wave of serial eruptions of this sort would not be without precedent. In the early years of the twentieth-first century, for example, one government after another in disparate parts of the former Soviet Union was swept away in what were called the "color revolutions"—populist upheavals against old-style authoritarian     regimes. These included the "Rose Revolution" in Georgia (2003), the "Orange Revolution" in Ukraine (2004), and the "Pink" or "Tulip Revolution" in     Kyrgyzstan (2005). In 2011, a similar wave of protests erupted in North Africa, culminating in what we call the Arab Spring.  Public skepticism has  proved a major obstacle to the Japanese government's desire to    restart the country's idled reactors.  A "green revolution" is unlikely to arise from a highly structured political     campaign with clearly identified leaders. In all likelihood, it will erupt spontaneously, after a cascade of climate-change induced disasters provokes an     outpouring of public fury. Once ignited, however, it will undoubtedly ratchet up the pressure for governments to seek broad-ranging, systemic     transformations of their energy and climate policies. In this sense, any such upheaval—whatever form it takes—will prove "revolutionary" by seeking policy     shifts of such magnitude as to challenge the survival of incumbent governments or force them to enact measures with transformative implications.  Foreshadowings of such a process can already be found around the globe. Take the mass environmental protests that erupted in Turkey this June. Though     sparked by a far smaller concern than planetary devastation via climate change, for a time they actually posed a significant threat to Prime Minister Recep     Tayyip Erdogan and his governing party. Although his forces eventually succeeded in crushing the protests—      leaving  four dead, 8,000 injured, and 11 blinded by tear gas canisters—his reputation as a moderate Islamist was    badly damaged by the episode.  Like so many surprising upheavals, the Turkish uprising had the most modest of beginnings: on May 27, a handful of environmental activists    blocked bulldozers sent by the     government to level Gezi Park, a tiny oasis of greenery in the heart of Istanbul, and prepare the way for the construction of an upscale mall. The     government responded to this small-scale nonviolent action by sending in riot police and clearing the area, a move that enraged many Turks and prompted     tens of thousands to occupy nearby Taksim Square. This move, in turn, led to an even more brutal      police crackdown  and then to huge demonstrations in Istanbul and around the country. In the end, mass protests    erupted in 70 cities, the largest display of antigovernment     sentiment since Erdogan's Justice and Development Party came to power in 2002.  This was, in the most literal sense possible, a "green" revolution, ignited by the government's assault on the last piece of greenery in central Istanbul. But once the police intervened in full strength, it became a wide-ranging rebuke to Erdogan's authoritarian impulses and his drive to    remake the city as a neo-Ottoman showplace—replete with fancy malls and high-priced condominiums—while     eliminating poor neighborhoods and freewheeling public spaces like Taksim Square.  "It's all about superiority, and ruling over the people like sultans," one protestor    declared. It's not just about the trees in Gezi Park,    said another:     "We are here to stand up against those who are trying to make a profit from our land."  The Ningbo rebellion  The same trajectory of events—a small-scale environmental protest evolving into a full-scale challenge to governmental authority—can be seen in other mass     protests of recent years.  Take a Chinese example: in October 2012, students and middle class people joined with poor farmers to protest the construction of an $8.8 billion     petrochemical facility in Ningbo, a city of 3.4 million people south of Shanghai. In a country where environmental pollution has reached nearly unprecedented levels, these protests were    touched off by fears that the plant, to be built by the state-owned energy company Sinopec with local government support, would produce    paraxylene, a toxic substance used in plastics, paints, and cleaning solvents.  Here, too, the initial spark that led to the protests was small in scale. On October 22, some 200 farmers obstructed a road near the district government's     office in an attempt to block the plant's construction. After the police were called in to clear the blockade, students from nearby Ningbo University     joined the protests. Using social media, the protestors quickly enlisted support from middle-class residents of the city who converged in their thousands     on downtown Ningbo.  When riot police moved in to break up the crowds, the protestors fought back, attacking police cars and throwing bricks and water     bottles. While the police eventually gained the upper hand after several days of pitched battles, the Chinese government concluded that mass action of this     sort, occurring in the heart of a major city and featuring an alliance of students, farmers, and young professionals, was too great a threat. After five days of fighting, the government gave in,    announcing the cancellation of the     petrochemical project.  The Ningbo demonstrations were hardly the first such upheavals to erupt in China. They did, however, highlight a     growing governmental vulnerability to mass environmental protest. For decades, the reigning Chinese Communist Party has justified its monopolistic hold on     power by citing its success in generating rapid economic growth. But that growth means the use of ever more fossil fuels and petrochemicals, which, in turn, means increased carbon emissions and disastrous atmospheric pollution, including one "    airpocalypse" after another.  Until recently, most Chinese seemed to accept such conditions as the inevitable consequences of growth, but it seems that tolerance of environmental degradation is rapidly    diminishing.     As a result, the party finds itself in a terrible bind: it can slow development as a step toward cleaning up the environment, incurring a risk of growing     economic discontent, or it can continue its policy of growth at any cost, and find itself embroiled in a firestorm of Ningbo-style environmental protests.  This dilemma—the environment versus the economy—has been at the heart of similar mass eruptions elsewhere on the planet.  After Fukushima  Two of the largest protests of this sort were sparked by the reactor meltdowns at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plants on March 11, 2011, after a     massive tsunami struck northern Japan. In both of these actions—the first in Germany, the second in Japan—the future of nuclear power and the survival of     governments were placed in doubt.  Many governments will be at risk, but the Chinese leadership appears to be especially vulnerable.  The biggest protests occurred in Germany. On March 26, 15 days after the Fukushima explosions, an estimated    250,000 people participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations across the     country—100,000 in Berlin, and up to 40,000 each in Hamburg, Munich, and Cologne. "Today's demonstrations are just the prelude to a new, strong,     anti-nuclear movement," declared Jochen Stay, a protest leader. "We're not going to let up     until the plants are finally mothballed."  At issue was the fate of Germany's remaining nuclear power plants. Although touted as an attractive alternative to fossil fuels, nuclear power is seen by most Germans as a dangerous and unwelcome energy option. Several months prior to Fukushima, Chancellor Angela Merkel    insisted that Germany would keep its 17     operating reactors until 2040, allowing a smooth transition from the country's historic reliance on coal to renewable energy for generating electricity.     Immediately after Fukushima, she ordered a temporary shutdown of Germany's seven oldest reactors for safety inspections but refused to close the others,     provoking an outpouring of protest.  Witnessing the scale of the demonstrations, and after suffering an electoral defeat in the key state of Baden-Württemberg, Merkel evidently came to the conclusion that clinging to her position would be the equivalent of political suicide. On May 30, she    announced that the seven reactors undergoing inspections would be     closed permanently and the remaining 10 would be phased out by 2022, almost 20 years earlier than in her original plan.  By all accounts, the decision to phase out nuclear power almost two decades early will have significant repercussions for the German economy.    Shutting down the reactors and replacing them with wind and solar energy will cost an estimated $735 billion and take several decades,    causing high     electricity bills and periodic energy shortages. However, such is the strength of antinuclear sentiment in Germany that Merkel felt she     had no choice but to close the reactors anyway.  The antinuclear protests in Japan occurred considerably later, but were no less momentous. On July 16 of 2012, 16 months after the Fukushima disaster, an estimated    170,000 people assembled in Tokyo to protest a government plan to restart the country's nuclear reactors, idled after the disaster. This was not only Japan's largest     antinuclear demonstration in many years, but the largest of any sort to occur in recent memory.  For the government, the July 16 action was particularly significant. Prior to Fukushima, most Japanese had embraced the country's growing reliance on nuclear power, putting their trust in the government to ensure its safety. After Fukushima and the disastrous attempts of the reactors' owner, the    Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), to deal with the     situation, public support for nuclear power plummeted. As it became increasingly evident     that the government had mishandled the crisis,     people lost faith in its ability to exercise effective control over the nuclear industry. Repeated promises that nuclear reactors could be made safe lost     all credibility when it became known that government officials had collaborated with TEPCO executives in      covering up  safety concerns at Fukushima and, once the meltdowns occurred, in concealing information about the true scale of     the disaster and its medical implications.  The July 16 protest and others like it should be seen as a public vote against the government's energy policy and oversight capabilities.  Skepticism about the government, rare in twenty-first-century Japan, has proved a major obstacle to that government's desire to    restart the country's 50 idled reactors. While most Japanese oppose nuclear power, Prime     Minister Shinzo Abe remains determined to get the rectors running again in order to reduce Japan's heavy reliance on imported energy and promote economic     growth.  "I think it is impossible to promise zero [nuclear power plants] at this stage," he    declared this October. "From the government's     standpoint, [nuclear plants] are extremely important for a stable energy supply and economic activities."  Despite such sentiments, Abe is finding it difficult to garner support for his plans, and it is doubtful that significant numbers of those reactors will be     coming online anytime soon.  The explosions ahead  What these episodes tell us is that people around the world are becoming ever more concerned about energy policy as it affects their lives and are prepared     to engage in mass protests, often on short notice. At the same time, governments globally, with rare exceptions, are deeply wedded to existing energy     policies. These almost invariably turn them into targets, no matter what the original spark for mass opposition. As the results of climate change become     ever more disruptive, government officials will find themselves repeatedly choosing between long-held energy plans and the possibility of losing their grip     on power.  Like China, the United States will experience genuine damage from its unwavering commitment to fossil fuels.  Because few governments are as yet prepared to launch the sorts of efforts that might even begin to effectively address the peril of climate change, they     will increasingly be seen as obstacles to essential action and so as entities that need to be removed. In short, climate rebellion—spontaneous protests     that may at any moment evolve into unquenchable mass movements—is on the horizon. Faced with such rebellions, recalcitrant governments will respond with     some combination of accommodation to popular demands and harsh repression.  Many governments will be at risk from such developments, but the Chinese leadership appears to be especially vulnerable. The ruling party has staked its     future viability on an endless carbon-fueled growth agenda that is steadily destroying the country's environment. It has already faced half a dozen environmental upheavals like the one in Ningbo, and has responded to them either by    agreeing to     protestors' demands or by employing brute force. The question is: How long can this go on?  Environmental conditions are      bound to worsen  , especially as China continues to rely on coal for home heating and electrical power, and yet there is      no indication  that the ruling Communist Party is prepared to take the radical steps required to significantly reduce domestic coal consumption. This translates into the     possibility of mass protests erupting at any time and potentially on an unprecedented scale. And these, in turn, could bring the Party's very survival into     question—a scenario guaranteed to produce immense anxiety among the country's top leaders.  If governments won't take the lead on an imperiled planet, someone else will.  And what about the United States? At this point, it would be ludicrous to say that the nation's political leadership is at risk of being forced to take     serious steps to scale back reliance on fossil fuels as a result of popular disturbances. There are, however, certainly signs of a growing nationwide     campaign against aspects of fossil fuel reliance, including vigorous protests against hydraulic fracturing ("fracking") and the    Keystone XL tar sands pipeline.  For environmental activist and writer Bill McKibben, all this adds up to an incipient mass movement against the continued consumption of fossil fuels.  Bill de Blasio accepts the Democratic nomination for mayor. Photo by Jere Keys / Flickr.Four Signs that Regular Folks Can Still Win (and One That Shows the Power of Money)   "In the last few years," he has written, this movement "has blocked the     construction of dozens of coal-fired power plants, fought the oil industry to a draw on the Keystone pipeline, convinced a wide swath of American     institutions to divest themselves of their fossil fuel stocks, and challenged practices like mountaintop-removal coal mining and fracking for natural gas."     It may not have achieved the success of the drive for gay marriage, he observes, but it "continues to grow quickly, and it's starting to claim some     victories."  If it's still too early to gauge the future of this anticarbon movement, it does seem, at least, to be gaining momentum. In the 2013 elections, for     example, three cities in energy-rich Colorado—Boulder, Fort Collins, and Lafayette      voted  to ban or place moratoriums on fracking within their boundaries, while protests against Keystone XL and similar projects are on the rise.  Nobody can say that a green energy revolution is a sure thing, but who can deny that energy-oriented protests in the U.S. and elsewhere have the potential     to expand into something far greater? Like China, the United States will experience genuine damage from its unwavering commitment to fossil fuels in the years     ahead. Americans are not, for the most part, passive people. Expect them, like the Chinese, to respond to these perils with increased ire and a     determination to alter government policy.  So don't be surprised if that green energy revolution erupts in your neighborhood as part of humanity's response to the greatest danger we've ever faced.     If governments won't take the lead on an imperiled planet, someone else will.

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